A recent analysis of Cardano (ADA) had posited that the price could fall to about seventy cents. It certainly looked this way the last few days. The announcement by Coinbase changed that. Coinbase announced that Cardano would be added to Coinbase Pro. Likely, this addition will also indicate ADAs inclusion to Coinbase.com. Charles Hoskinson beamed with joy and satisfaction on his YouTube channel following the announcement. There is now talk of ADAs price hitting $2 in the next few weeks. Some have posited $5! Nevertheless, the ADA daily chart suggests a more conservative consideration.
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (Please click image to enlarge)
Fibonacci extensions show what it means to be conservative. We see that the Fibonacci extensions 23.6, 38.2, 50.0, and 61.8 are $1.24, $1.42, $1.57, and $1.72 respectively. The current price at the time of writing is $1.28. This price has a way to go to hit $1.72. The price may very well go beyond $1.72 quicker than we can imagine. There is also the issue of the Ichimoku Cloud. It is obvious ADAUSD is bullish with the chikou span free of the price action. This does indicate that the price could rise uninterrupted. Looking at the lower timeframes i.e. the one and four-hour timeframes, both show strong signs of consolidation. This may be due to investors/speculators waiting for the launch which occurs tomorrow. One could suppose that once the launch takes place, price action could be gauged more accurately.
Cardano has a lot of good things going on with many enhancements to come. It also has a very solid developer and forward-looking team guiding the project. With this, there are many reasons to be cheerful. As to what the price will do in the future, your guess is as good as mine.
At about 7 pm CAT (Central African Time) yesterday, I noticed that the BTC price on Bitfnex was more on par with other exchanges. I had to do a double take. I thought there must be some mistake. One had to wonder, is it the price premium outcry or something else that has made this happen. I could think of no reason. Some of you may recall that my last blog piece was precisely about the Bitfinex BTC price premium. Historically, there has always been a more visible difference when it comes to Bitfinex and other exchanges.
I began to reconsider my earlier thoughts. What really has brought about the shrinking Bitfinex BTC premium? I thought of a few reasons that may have brought this about. Earlier in the week, Bitfinex made an announcement on receiving both hard and soft commitments of a $1 Billion towards its’ exchange token. This was according to one of the shareholders involved in the process. Could this be one of the reasons? Let us not forget the outcry by many in the crypto community. Might this have been another reason?
We must also think about Bitcoin volatility. Recent prices surges will as they do even up the costs across the different the crypto exchanges because of an increase in demand right across the board. Might there be something else we are not considering or is there just a simpler explanation? Maybe there is an easier explanation but then again your guess is as good as mine.
Recent reports indicate that something fishy may be going on in the cryptocurrency markets. The point in case is Bitfinex. It is believed that Bitfinex is skewing the price of Bitcoin. This has concerned the likes of CoinMarketCap to the point that it has stopped listing Bitfinex prices. I had initially thought this impossible, but on investigation, it turned out to be so. Taking a quick glance at the Bitcoin price, you will immediately see the disparity. What this means is that the Bitcoin price on Coinbase, Bitstamp. Bittrex, Gemini, and OKCoin are pretty similar. For those who love arbitrage, there are no opportunities to take advantage of. The weighted average price is $5821.43 (at the time of writing) while the price on Bitfinex is $6121.6. This is a difference of $300.17! Such a difference should be cause for concern.
New York State Attorney has also announced an investigation into the conduct of Bitfinex, Tether, and iFinex for what appears to be a series of bank transfer cover up of losses totaling $850 million. Many an analyst believes that this might bring on a new bearish sentiment in the market. That concern seems to have dissipated considering the current bullish sentiment in the price of Bitcoin.
While the disparity of Bitfinex to other exchanges has brought on some concern, a counter argument could be brought forward concerning the exchanges Coinfloor and itBit. Their Bitcoin prices are $4376, and $3547.7 as at the time of writing. This is a difference of $1445.43, and $2273.73 respectively, when deducted from the weighted average. So, what is the real price of Bitcoin? Do we really know? I suppose not, but as I have always said, your guess is as good as mine.
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