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For full disclosure purposes, I am long on BTC! Ok, people, I have said it, so now you know. I am sure that most of you are watching the BTC price closely. For some, they found themselves on the outside looking in. I give no financial advice; I am not qualified. For those looking, wait till there is a retracement. We do, however, have a problem with this thesis. The BTC chart shows an ascending broadening wedge.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview An ascending broadening wedge, according to excellenceassured.com, is as follows: Price makes a low and rises. We then track price as it rises away from the low. We are looking for higher highs and higher lows in a tight range. The ascending says just one thing - the price will continue in its current direction, up. There is also an area of institutional selling, which doubles as a weak high. I have said in an earlier post that I expect the BTC price to hit $38k. It did so by hitting $37999! One expects Bitcoin to achieve that price point. At the mo, BTC is just over $37k, and the Choppiness Index shows there is still enough market energy to move the market upwards. Perhaps when it hits that point, a retracement will occur. No one can tell. Let me add this final point: energy on the weekly chart shows a decline. The Choppiness Index reads a value of just over 35. Market energy at this level might be just enough to ensure the $38k price point. As always, we are making educated guesses. Those late to the party pray for a retracement, and as to when it will arrive, your guess is as good as mine.
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I wrote a blog yesterday with the Directional Movement Index (DMI) as the focal point. I did not publish it for all to see. Reasonable it may be, convincing it was not! I returned to using the indicators I always use - Laguerre RSI, Choppinex Index and the Volume Profile. So, here is my short and sweet analysis. Let us start with the weekly. The current BTC price is almost at the point of equilibrium. What this means is that there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers. Here, we have price levels of between $35.5k and $38k. The BTC price has tested the $35k level several times and will eventually break through. Should the breakthrough come, we will have BTC rising almost unimpeded to $38k. At this level, the Laguerre RSI and Choppiness Index have the strength to ensure this. Who knows, maybe the price will hit the $47k mark as long as there is strength in market energy (choppiness index).  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview We now turn our attention to the lower time frame of one day. Here, we see strength in both the Laguerre and the Choppiness. The Choppiness is reconstituting strength, which will help further market momentum. Some analysts have posited a fall in BTC price levels. One may believe this to happen sooner than later because BTC is at an institutional selling price level, as you can see on the charts. At worst, I think BTC may fall to around $30k. Only something dramatic can bring it down to $25k levels. There will be retracement at some levels, but not the falls analysts are expecting.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview The uncertainty in the markets at the moment is causing all to be confused with the overall direction. Technical analysts among us will continue to look to the charts for answers. Others will lean on fundamental analysis. Some may even look to the stars for answers. Nevertheless, whatever you may have found or guided you, your guess is as good as mine.
Before discussing today's topic, let me refer you to a post I put out on the 9th of October titled, "BTC: Is There Too Much Excitement?" I stated that if BTC hit the $30500 price (a move of 8%), we could be on for a bull run. Ladies and gentlemen, we have hit that price level. There is the question of what's next. Let's have a look at the charts.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, we see that the Laguerre RSI indicating BTC is overbought. There is also the fact that the flattening of the Laguerre RSI shows a continuous price rise. The Choppiness Index shows a drop in energy to 38, which means the price may begin to fall. I think the Choppiness Index will begin to consolidate for prices to continue to rise. I also suspect that the price will hit $32k before seeing a retracement. The reason for this is that we have a weak high at this level.  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the weekly, the signs are more encouraging. The Laguerre RSI shows an upward momentum and is not in the overbought region. There is also strength in the Choppiness Index - meaning there is plenty of market energy. Judging by the volume profile, we expect BTC to hit $35k. Some analysts are now warning of the price action in the S&P 500. They posit two things. One, the S&P 500 is now below its 21-weekly moving average. Two, the S&P 500 price is also below the trend line. They believe that we must be concerned with this development. It means that these two signs indicate a fall in the overall market and the price of BTC. It will be interesting to see what happens as time goes on.  S&P 500 Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview As analysts, we can only posit based on experience, but no one can tell you what will happen. When we forecast, we hope it is in the right direction. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine.
You may have taken your eyes off the ball when Bitcoin blasted its way to US$30k. In other words, you were busy with other matters. I was one of such people. On the evening of Monday the 16th, I got my first chance that day to look at the charts. To my surprise, I see the BTC price at US30k. I did wonder what brought this about. As I looked into it, reports surfaced that the approval of a BTC ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is imminent. These reports were false and rumours. In the world of crypto, a day is a very long time. These rumours now have some validity. The SEC's (US Securities and Exchange Commission) recent losses in court have contributed to the excitement that there will be a BTC ETF before the end of the year. Institutional players, including BlackRock and Cathie Wood's ARK, are clamouring for this. It seems the tide has turned.  BTC Price | Source: Tradingview A look at the charts tells us a lot. First, a new series of higher highs and higher lows indicates increased activity in the market. Second, the price broke through a confluence of institutional selling at price points between $29k and $30.2k. Many analysts believe $35k is possible. Some have gone as far as $40k. Finally, the series of higher highs and higher lows emanate from areas of institutional buying. The Laguerre RSI at 100 indicates that BTC is overbought. While the Choppiness Index has barely enough energy for a price push. These indicators tell us that prices may fall. Nevertheless, with the rumours swirling around, investors may be too enthusiastic to have a correction. So, do rumours conquer all? Sometimes, I guess. And as for the optimistic bets of $40k BTC, your guess is as good as mine.
The gods of crypto must forgive investors in ETH if they believe hardly anything is happening with this cryptocurrency. ETH charts show nothing of excitement. We have a point of control (PoC) at $1627, which ETH price action has barely been able to surpass. When it does so, it falls back down. We may lean on the following to make a case for the current disposition. The choppiness index shows that there is still plenty of energy left in the market. It currently sits at 50.92. At 50.92, there is enough energy to support the formation of a trend. Please remember that the choppiness index does not determine the trend direction.  ETH/USD Chart | Source: Tradingview What determines a trend direction is the Laguerre RSI. A few days ago, the Laguerre RSI hinted at an increase in price. This rise was short-lived as the price action trended sideways. Perhaps the best indication of a lack of a clear direction is the volume profile. The ETH/USD chart shows the volume profile on the right. We see that the volume profile has two areas of low-volume nodes or low-volume areas. These are sections of the price chart where trading activity and volume are relatively lower. Traders and analysts often pay attention to these areas as they can provide insights into levels of support or resistance. In addition, indicate areas where price may consolidate or experience a breakout. So, what are the possibilities? If the price breaks to the upside and surpasses $1661, we may see an ETH price of $1825. On the other hand, if the price falls below $1530, we may see an ETH price of $1329. Both sound ridiculous, hence, perhaps the confusion. Of course, there are variables to help with the price levels up or down. The one thing to determine is if the price is at the bottom, with no further to fall, hence the confusion. We must be vigilant and monitor price levels carefully. And as for how the price will move, your guess is as good as mine.
Quite a few things have happened in the life of MATIC. For starters, MATIC is now called Polygon, with a new symbol, POL. I must admit some confusion. There is a cryptocurrency called Proof of Liquidity with the same crypto-symbol POL. Although this crypto is less than one US cent, having the same symbol is still baffling. Anyway, we are not discussing crypto-symbols but currencies. Let us start with the weekly chart. Laguerre RSI is flat, indicating that the price is likely to have bottomed out. The choppiness index is currently at a value of 38.02. What this means is the use of a considerable amount of energy. You can expect non-linear behaviour, such as a one-day pullback. Few trends come to an abrupt end, but probabilities have increased for a reversal or consolidation. Nevertheless, when the higher timeframe shows weakness in market energy, we must pay attention and be alert.  MATIC Weekly Chart | Source: Tradingview.com On the daily chart, we see a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downward trend, if there ever was one. Earlier in the day, MATIC's price was $0.51, touching the discount region. It is most likely we will see a revisit of the discount region. The reason is that right above the price action lies above the price. This area also acts as resistance and may do so again.  MATIC Daily Chart | Source: Tradingview.con When I mention the glory days, I mean when MATIC was almost $3.00. Considering the current price range of MATIC, its price has fallen some 83%. It will likely take a while before we return to the heady days of $3.00. When we look at BTC dominance, we might want to bear in mind that liquidity is leaving the Altcoins and going to Bitcoin. As long as this continues, we can expect a bumpy ride in the price of MATIC. Finally, please don't ask for a future price, because your guess is as good as mine.  Bitcoin Dominance | Source: Tradingview.com I heard of Arbitrum (ARB) but had not paid that much attention to it. What got me to look at ARB more seriously was Mirror. XYZ. Arbitrum is a layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum blockchain. It aims to improve the performance of Ethereum smart-contracts by increasing their speed, scalability, and privacy. We all know that using the Ethereum blockchain for payments has been a nightmare in terms of costs to the user. Sometimes, the Ethereum blockchain is unusable due to a lack of scalability to deal with a backlog of payments. ARB is a much cheaper alternative and scales effectively. I think we best stop here; this blog is not about discussing the virtues of ARB.  Arbitrum Chart, Courtesy Tradingview The ARB chart shows that the current price of $0.90 is close to the all-time low of $0.87. One might say that this is a buying opportunity. It probably is. We can also see a series of lower highs and lower lows, which means there is a possibility that the price may have further to fall. We must pay attention to the price action as the choppiness index has enough energy to affect the fall. In addition, the Laguerre RSI indicates weakness in the price action overall, with no movement to the upside. The discount area on the chart acts as support, as seen over the last few days. No one knows what will happen; we can only make educated guesses. Since that's all we have, your guess is as good as mine.
 Charles Hoskinson, image courtesy of Cryptonews.com In the last couple of days, there has been excitement concerning ADA. While this is good news, I am sure the hodlers are not impressed by all the noise. Lovers of technical analysis (TA) will tell you the charts are not impressive in the slightest. Before continuing, I must disclose that I hold ADA. Those who have read my content know I never even talk about ADA. Someone close to me asked to take a quick look, hence this blog. Let us start with the monthly chart; the trend has been downhill since September 2021 to today. And there is no end in sight. Charles Hoskinson (Cardano Head-Honcho) can sing, talk, and dance all he likes, but nothing is happening. Many are getting restless. The price dropped a whopping 91.93%! A story of devastation for hodlers and the hopefuls.  ADA Monthly Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview Now we move to the weekly. Here, we see matters more clearly. We see a series of Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) on the chart. BOS is when the price breaks a previous higher high in an uptrend or a lower low in a downtrend. A CHoCH is when the price breaks a prior higher low in an uptrend or a lower high in a downtrend. As I write, there is a CHoCH on the chart, which means a fall. It does not look pretty.  ADA Weekly Chart, Courtesy Tradingview Finally, we have the daily chart. You may have noticed that I did not touch on the Choppiness Index or the Laguerre RSI. I did not forget; this was deliberate. The daily chart shows nothing new. Nevertheless, ADAs' price action is below the Point of Control (PoC). PoC refers to the most popular price level where the highest volume of trades occurred within a specified time frame. The position of the PoC in relation to the current price can provide insights into market sentiment. If the PoC is above the current price, it may indicate bearish sentiment, while if it is below the current price, it may signal bullish sentiment. Currently, the ADA price level is below the PoC.  ADA Daily Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview However, looking at the Choppiness Index, we can see plenty of energy at just over 60. Please remember that the Choppiness Index does not show overbought or oversold areas but energy in the market. In other words, the market can go up or down based on the amount of energy present. ADA does not appear to have anywhere to go but down. In order to add more context to the discussion, I have added the Fibonacci retracement to the chart. There is some confluence between the 78.6% level and institutional selling. This area is likely to act as resistance to the price action. ADAs' price level fell to $0.23 on June 10th, breaking through the institutional buying area. Institutional buying is likely to act as support to the price. We will see more activity by the institutions and observant retail traders. If you are a hodler or believer in the Cardano project, expect to continue this bumpy ride. As for a better ADA price, your guess is as good as mine.
We all know that there is never a dull moment in crypto. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a secret motion against Binance. No doubt this will have some impact on the BTC price. One can imagine the longs running for cover. Some may say it is better to be out of the market. If so, where is the fun in that?  BTC Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview I posited a few days ago that the charts indicate a further fall; I have not changed my mind. At the time of writing, the current BTC price is $27236, down from $28184 by over $1100. In addition, the Fibonacci retracement also shows that the price has fallen through the 61.8% level, which means a further fall is likely. There is also a close confluence with the $27431 level on the volume profile with the 61.8% Fibonacci levels. When we add the Choppiness Index effect, there is still enough energy to facilitate a further fall, but these things don't happen overnight. It should come as no surprise that the price may fall all the way down to the area of institutional buying (the blue rectangle marked on the chart). We now wait and see what happens; time is the custodian of events. Educated guesses are all we have to discuss, nothing more. An exception might be if you have a crystal ball to tell the future. If not, your guess is as good as mine.
What I had wanted was to discuss the price possibilities for Bitcoin. And like a thunderbolt, the SEC loses its case to Grayscale. It may be safe to say the SEC will appeal this case and prolong the matter more than necessary. By the way, the SEC loss brought about a surge in the price of Bitcoin, ruining my original thesis. Notwithstanding, there is a lot we can get from the chart as it currently is. The charts for a while have shown a sideways price movement for Bitcoin. The Fear & Greed index this morning was a value of 39. One can even say that most speculators were short. I dare say the sudden price surge must have ruined many a day; thankfully, not mine!  Before the sudden price surge, BTC looked like a fall was in the offing. BTC's price at that time was $25810, with a chance of BTC hitting $24750. The evidence for this lies in its volume profile. The volume profile also showed that the price might even fall lower. Had the $24750 level broken, the next stop was $19300. You may wonder what evidence is present for this, the choppiness index. The Choppiness index measures market energy and not overbought or oversold levels. At the time of writing this, the energy levels were at 48.09. Hence, there was enough energy in the market to bring about a further fall in price. We are in a moment in history where markets are tricky to predict. I would say never mind the fear and greed; it is the doubt that counts. And as long as these doubts persist, the market will misbehave. As for where the price will end up, your guess is as good as mine.
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