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For full disclosure purposes, I am long on BTC! Ok, people, I have said it, so now you know. I am sure that most of you are watching the BTC price closely. For some, they found themselves on the outside looking in. I give no financial advice; I am not qualified. For those looking, wait till there is a retracement. We do, however, have a problem with this thesis. The BTC chart shows an ascending broadening wedge.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview An ascending broadening wedge, according to excellenceassured.com, is as follows: Price makes a low and rises. We then track price as it rises away from the low. We are looking for higher highs and higher lows in a tight range. The ascending says just one thing - the price will continue in its current direction, up. There is also an area of institutional selling, which doubles as a weak high. I have said in an earlier post that I expect the BTC price to hit $38k. It did so by hitting $37999! One expects Bitcoin to achieve that price point. At the mo, BTC is just over $37k, and the Choppiness Index shows there is still enough market energy to move the market upwards. Perhaps when it hits that point, a retracement will occur. No one can tell. Let me add this final point: energy on the weekly chart shows a decline. The Choppiness Index reads a value of just over 35. Market energy at this level might be just enough to ensure the $38k price point. As always, we are making educated guesses. Those late to the party pray for a retracement, and as to when it will arrive, your guess is as good as mine.
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I wrote a blog yesterday with the Directional Movement Index (DMI) as the focal point. I did not publish it for all to see. Reasonable it may be, convincing it was not! I returned to using the indicators I always use - Laguerre RSI, Choppinex Index and the Volume Profile. So, here is my short and sweet analysis. Let us start with the weekly. The current BTC price is almost at the point of equilibrium. What this means is that there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers. Here, we have price levels of between $35.5k and $38k. The BTC price has tested the $35k level several times and will eventually break through. Should the breakthrough come, we will have BTC rising almost unimpeded to $38k. At this level, the Laguerre RSI and Choppiness Index have the strength to ensure this. Who knows, maybe the price will hit the $47k mark as long as there is strength in market energy (choppiness index).  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview We now turn our attention to the lower time frame of one day. Here, we see strength in both the Laguerre and the Choppiness. The Choppiness is reconstituting strength, which will help further market momentum. Some analysts have posited a fall in BTC price levels. One may believe this to happen sooner than later because BTC is at an institutional selling price level, as you can see on the charts. At worst, I think BTC may fall to around $30k. Only something dramatic can bring it down to $25k levels. There will be retracement at some levels, but not the falls analysts are expecting.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview The uncertainty in the markets at the moment is causing all to be confused with the overall direction. Technical analysts among us will continue to look to the charts for answers. Others will lean on fundamental analysis. Some may even look to the stars for answers. Nevertheless, whatever you may have found or guided you, your guess is as good as mine.
Before discussing today's topic, let me refer you to a post I put out on the 9th of October titled, "BTC: Is There Too Much Excitement?" I stated that if BTC hit the $30500 price (a move of 8%), we could be on for a bull run. Ladies and gentlemen, we have hit that price level. There is the question of what's next. Let's have a look at the charts.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, we see that the Laguerre RSI indicating BTC is overbought. There is also the fact that the flattening of the Laguerre RSI shows a continuous price rise. The Choppiness Index shows a drop in energy to 38, which means the price may begin to fall. I think the Choppiness Index will begin to consolidate for prices to continue to rise. I also suspect that the price will hit $32k before seeing a retracement. The reason for this is that we have a weak high at this level.  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the weekly, the signs are more encouraging. The Laguerre RSI shows an upward momentum and is not in the overbought region. There is also strength in the Choppiness Index - meaning there is plenty of market energy. Judging by the volume profile, we expect BTC to hit $35k. Some analysts are now warning of the price action in the S&P 500. They posit two things. One, the S&P 500 is now below its 21-weekly moving average. Two, the S&P 500 price is also below the trend line. They believe that we must be concerned with this development. It means that these two signs indicate a fall in the overall market and the price of BTC. It will be interesting to see what happens as time goes on.  S&P 500 Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview As analysts, we can only posit based on experience, but no one can tell you what will happen. When we forecast, we hope it is in the right direction. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine.
You may have taken your eyes off the ball when Bitcoin blasted its way to US$30k. In other words, you were busy with other matters. I was one of such people. On the evening of Monday the 16th, I got my first chance that day to look at the charts. To my surprise, I see the BTC price at US30k. I did wonder what brought this about. As I looked into it, reports surfaced that the approval of a BTC ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is imminent. These reports were false and rumours. In the world of crypto, a day is a very long time. These rumours now have some validity. The SEC's (US Securities and Exchange Commission) recent losses in court have contributed to the excitement that there will be a BTC ETF before the end of the year. Institutional players, including BlackRock and Cathie Wood's ARK, are clamouring for this. It seems the tide has turned.  BTC Price | Source: Tradingview A look at the charts tells us a lot. First, a new series of higher highs and higher lows indicates increased activity in the market. Second, the price broke through a confluence of institutional selling at price points between $29k and $30.2k. Many analysts believe $35k is possible. Some have gone as far as $40k. Finally, the series of higher highs and higher lows emanate from areas of institutional buying. The Laguerre RSI at 100 indicates that BTC is overbought. While the Choppiness Index has barely enough energy for a price push. These indicators tell us that prices may fall. Nevertheless, with the rumours swirling around, investors may be too enthusiastic to have a correction. So, do rumours conquer all? Sometimes, I guess. And as for the optimistic bets of $40k BTC, your guess is as good as mine.
There has been a lot of excitement about the BTC price movement. We have had the punditry come out with all sorts of predictions. It is no surprise to anyone; it is what we should expect. Is there room for excitement? Perhaps! Let us look at the evidence. Let's start with the charts. First, the BTC daily chart reveals that the point of control (PoC) acts as resistance. In addition, we are at an equilibrium point. Equilibrium is the state of the market where demand and supply are in balance with the price, indicating that the market price is at fair value. For the price of BTC to rise, it needs to break through not just the PoC but the equilibrium.  BTC Price Chart | Source: Tradingview.com Above both the equilibrium and the PoC, we have a large area of institutional selling (maroon in colour). We may see this area act as resistance. Institutional selling is $29140, a 3.91% move to the upside from the PoC. BTC has moved higher in the past; nevertheless, equilibrium needs consideration. Third and finally, the Laguerre RSI value. Currently, the Laguerre RSI has a reading of 100. The Laguerre RSI may remain at this value for a while but eventually fall. A value of 100 means BTC is overbought at current levels. For the excitement to be palpable, we will need BTC to hit the $30500 level, a move of over 8%. When BTC breaks that price, I believe we will have a great bull run. So, when will this happen? I know not. If you do, then your guess is as good as mine. To be part of this competition, please see here for details: https://nosax.me/crunchDao
One big moment late last week was the announcement by the government of the United States not to shut down government functions. Many believe this brought about a spike in the BTC price. I am not in complete agreement with this opinion. One reason is the sudden spike in price on Sunday, the 1st of October. Nothing was happening over the weekend to warrant such a price spike. Perhaps there was the fear of a short squeeze. Nevertheless, vagaries in the crypto market come as no surprise. Without the obvious answer, let us look at a few possible factors.  Fear & Greed Index | Source: CoinMarketCap A look at the Fear & Greed Index tells us that there is investor uncertainty. We are currently at a rate of 44, which signifies a neutral sentiment. The volume profile reveals that the point of control (PoC) acts as a point of resistance but turns to support. Laguerre RSI shows that it is in the overbought territory. The choppiness index also indicates it is getting low on energy at just under 43. While there is promise of a price rise, there are points of concern. For instance, the current price is below the Fibonacci 61.8% level. We may see the price falling further.  Bitcoin/USD Chart | Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also showing strength. When the DXY shows strength, the price of BTC tends to fall. These two instruments show an inverse correlation.  Bitcoin/DXY Chart | Source: Tradingview Finally, onchain analytics has a few things to say. Let us look at just two indicators. The 200-week moving average heatmap reveals something significant. In each of its market cycles, Bitcoin's price historically bottoms out around the 200-week moving average. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. When the price dots are purple and close to the 200-week MA, these have historically been good times to buy. We see this with the current price of BTC.  Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap | Source: LookIntoBitcoin Another good indication of BTC buying is the 2-year MA Multiplier. We also see that buying BTC should occur when the price is below the green line and selling when above the red. There can be no question; some are accumulating, while some have made a quick profit.  Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier | Source: LookIntoBitcoin I suspect that the price action will surprise us. We should be ready before the price takes off. It is all we can do or must do. And when will this happen? All I can say is your guess is as good as mine.
Quite a few things have happened in the life of MATIC. For starters, MATIC is now called Polygon, with a new symbol, POL. I must admit some confusion. There is a cryptocurrency called Proof of Liquidity with the same crypto-symbol POL. Although this crypto is less than one US cent, having the same symbol is still baffling. Anyway, we are not discussing crypto-symbols but currencies. Let us start with the weekly chart. Laguerre RSI is flat, indicating that the price is likely to have bottomed out. The choppiness index is currently at a value of 38.02. What this means is the use of a considerable amount of energy. You can expect non-linear behaviour, such as a one-day pullback. Few trends come to an abrupt end, but probabilities have increased for a reversal or consolidation. Nevertheless, when the higher timeframe shows weakness in market energy, we must pay attention and be alert.  MATIC Weekly Chart | Source: Tradingview.com On the daily chart, we see a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downward trend, if there ever was one. Earlier in the day, MATIC's price was $0.51, touching the discount region. It is most likely we will see a revisit of the discount region. The reason is that right above the price action lies above the price. This area also acts as resistance and may do so again.  MATIC Daily Chart | Source: Tradingview.con When I mention the glory days, I mean when MATIC was almost $3.00. Considering the current price range of MATIC, its price has fallen some 83%. It will likely take a while before we return to the heady days of $3.00. When we look at BTC dominance, we might want to bear in mind that liquidity is leaving the Altcoins and going to Bitcoin. As long as this continues, we can expect a bumpy ride in the price of MATIC. Finally, please don't ask for a future price, because your guess is as good as mine.  Bitcoin Dominance | Source: Tradingview.com You constantly hear of a new altcoin season, but all that happens is lower price levels. The most influential element in this equation is Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of the market capitalization of bitcoin to the rest of the crypto market. Bitcoin dominance = Bitcoin market cap/ Total cryptocurrency market cap Just in case you don't understand, the calculation for Bitcoin market cap is as follows: Bitcoin market cap = Bitcoin price X Bitcoin circulating supply Investors and traders of cryptocurrencies use bitcoin dominance to adjust their trading/investment strategies. The other characteristics of a higher Bitcoin dominance are the following:
Bitcoin Dominance, Courtesy Tradingview There are other things we could discuss, but these are beyond the scope of this blog. What I will say is that there is a simple strategy anyone can follow with these two moves. First, know when we are in a bull or bear market, and follow the BTC dominance as it happens. If BTC dominance increases, we will likely be in a bear market. If BTC dominance decreases, then we are in a bull market. Second, pair your favourite altcoin with Bitcoin. When the price falls against BTC, it means staying out of the investment. Otherwise, do the opposite. Let us now look at a few examples. We will start with Cardano; remember, we will pair ADA with BTC. To capture as much information as possible, the timeframe applied is weekly. ADA's price trajectory since August of 2021 has been downward. It means the price of ADA is falling relatively to that of BTC. Hence, it would be advisable not to put resources into this cryptocurrency.  ADA/BTC Price Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview Next is Polkadot (DOT). As you can see, this is very similar to the ADA chart. Again, the price of DOT is falling relative to that of BTC. Hence, one should not invest in this cryptocurrency.  DOT/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview Now we look at Solana (SOL). Here we have something different. While we have a downward trajectory in price, it is not as steep. It requires us to watch this pair closely. We also see that as long as the price does not fall below the white line, the SOL/BTC pair remains promising.  SOL/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview The MATIC/BTC chart is also similar to the SOL chart. We can see that the price action with this pair is sideways. We also see that the white line gives us a target area to observe. Breaking through the target area means we hold our current position and make no commitment to obtain any MATIC.  MATIC/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview This analysis is highly simplified, but observations like these will help you make quick decisions. Of course, this is not financial advice, but this should help. Your due diligence and research are mandatory before committing any money. What remains is when Bitcoin's dominance will change, and of course, altcoins will become exciting once more. As for that, your guess is as good as mine.
I believe a brief look at BTCs' weekly performance is in order. A glance at the chart shows no excitement in the slightest. The last four weeks have been flat. There is also an area of concern via the volume profile. When a volume profile shows a lack of volume in a particular price area, the price will rise or fall rapidly. BTC price is $25723, with the potential to drop to $23500. I must emphasise that this is not guaranteed to happen. Another price point is at the Point of Control (POC) at $19500. Price does love to move towards the POC.  BTC Chart, Courtesy Tradingview.com In an extreme case, we might even see a fall to a low of $15500. At the moment, this looks highly unlikely. In addition, let us not forget that the Laguerre RSI is on a downward trend with a high enough energy via the choppiness index. Finally, the bull market support chart helps clarify this point. The bull market support comprises the 21-weekly EMA and 20-weekly SMA. The range we are looking at between these two indicators is $27193 to $27928 (respectively). BTC prices are well under these ranges. It may take a while to be clear of these price points and rise even higher.  BTC Bull Market Support Chart, Courtesy Tradingview.com Despite the lacklustre BTC price, the on-chain indicator 2-year Moving Average (MA) Multiplier might give some comfort. The indicator functions as follows: buy BTC when the price drops below the 2-year MA (green line). Sell BTC when the price is above the 2-year MA x 5 (red line). Price is below the green line; a case for buying BTC, some might say (no financial advice). Predictions/forecasts are fools' luck. No one can tell where the price will head to. Perhaps you have a crystal ball to predict accurately. If not, your guess is as good as mine.  BTC 2-Year MA Multiplier Chart, Courtesy Lookintobitcoin.com I stated two days ago that the SEC is not likely to capitulate that easily when it comes to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Well, it looks like this has come true. There are reports that the SEC will delay the issuance of ETFs. One wonders what game the SEC is playing. Things are almost reminiscent of a banana republic. It is obvious to most that the initial euphoria of the SEC losing its case has come full circle. The price of BTC has continued to fall.  Bitcoin Price Movement, Courtesy Tradingview For those steeped in technical analysis (TA), the charts indicated that there would be a fall in price. Nonetheless, sentiment does come into play when it involves the stock market. And that sentiment can crater any instrument. The chart shows that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement has confluence with the institutional buying area. It also seems that this could be a new point of control (PoC) sometime in the future. The institutional buying area is going to be an area of support. Evidence of this is the congregation of prices around this area. We must remember that sentiment can easily knock the price downwards. BTC Price is $25782 (at the time of writing) and might drop to $24700. How and when sentiment may bring this about is unknown, which can only mean your guess is as good as mine.
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