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I am a big fan of Solana. As an asset, it has been very good to me both speculatively and long-term. As you all know, I am a big fan of NFTs. All NFTs of mine sold were through Solana. You may now understand my love for this asset. I confess recent price moves were more than welcome. Nevertheless, the cost of minting an NFT has risen - something unwelcome! Those using ETH certainly understand this sentiment! Solana has been a tear in recent weeks and went on to surpass USDC. It is now the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. Over the last thirty days, we have seen a price rise of 162.1%. In addition, we have seen a 36% price rise over seven days. Two days ago, the price dropped to $51.54 but has since recovered to $59.15 at the time of writing. So, are we to expect another storm? Let us look at the charts. The daily chart shows a strong trend to the upside. There is also a price equilibrium between $39 and $42. This price range may act as support if there is any sudden fall in price. The volume profile indicates that with good momentum, there is nothing to stop the price from rising above the $63 range. One can easily question this as market energy is low at 25. I suppose we will have to wait and see what price action does.  Solana Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview The weekly chart paints a similar picture, but being the higher timeframe with even lower energy at 22 causes some concern. We may yet see the price fall, but as mentioned, the $39 - $42 range may act as support.  Solana Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview We all know that even when the charts say one thing, people's emotions can create an unrealistic asset price. Solana is in danger of just that. The question remains - is there another storm on the way? Maybe. No one knows. Conditions for another run upwards are present. As for if and when it will happen, your guess is as good as mine.
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For full disclosure purposes, I am long on BTC! Ok, people, I have said it, so now you know. I am sure that most of you are watching the BTC price closely. For some, they found themselves on the outside looking in. I give no financial advice; I am not qualified. For those looking, wait till there is a retracement. We do, however, have a problem with this thesis. The BTC chart shows an ascending broadening wedge.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview An ascending broadening wedge, according to excellenceassured.com, is as follows: Price makes a low and rises. We then track price as it rises away from the low. We are looking for higher highs and higher lows in a tight range. The ascending says just one thing - the price will continue in its current direction, up. There is also an area of institutional selling, which doubles as a weak high. I have said in an earlier post that I expect the BTC price to hit $38k. It did so by hitting $37999! One expects Bitcoin to achieve that price point. At the mo, BTC is just over $37k, and the Choppiness Index shows there is still enough market energy to move the market upwards. Perhaps when it hits that point, a retracement will occur. No one can tell. Let me add this final point: energy on the weekly chart shows a decline. The Choppiness Index reads a value of just over 35. Market energy at this level might be just enough to ensure the $38k price point. As always, we are making educated guesses. Those late to the party pray for a retracement, and as to when it will arrive, your guess is as good as mine.
I wrote a blog yesterday with the Directional Movement Index (DMI) as the focal point. I did not publish it for all to see. Reasonable it may be, convincing it was not! I returned to using the indicators I always use - Laguerre RSI, Choppinex Index and the Volume Profile. So, here is my short and sweet analysis. Let us start with the weekly. The current BTC price is almost at the point of equilibrium. What this means is that there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers. Here, we have price levels of between $35.5k and $38k. The BTC price has tested the $35k level several times and will eventually break through. Should the breakthrough come, we will have BTC rising almost unimpeded to $38k. At this level, the Laguerre RSI and Choppiness Index have the strength to ensure this. Who knows, maybe the price will hit the $47k mark as long as there is strength in market energy (choppiness index).  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview We now turn our attention to the lower time frame of one day. Here, we see strength in both the Laguerre and the Choppiness. The Choppiness is reconstituting strength, which will help further market momentum. Some analysts have posited a fall in BTC price levels. One may believe this to happen sooner than later because BTC is at an institutional selling price level, as you can see on the charts. At worst, I think BTC may fall to around $30k. Only something dramatic can bring it down to $25k levels. There will be retracement at some levels, but not the falls analysts are expecting.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview The uncertainty in the markets at the moment is causing all to be confused with the overall direction. Technical analysts among us will continue to look to the charts for answers. Others will lean on fundamental analysis. Some may even look to the stars for answers. Nevertheless, whatever you may have found or guided you, your guess is as good as mine.
Before discussing today's topic, let me refer you to a post I put out on the 9th of October titled, "BTC: Is There Too Much Excitement?" I stated that if BTC hit the $30500 price (a move of 8%), we could be on for a bull run. Ladies and gentlemen, we have hit that price level. There is the question of what's next. Let's have a look at the charts.  BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, we see that the Laguerre RSI indicating BTC is overbought. There is also the fact that the flattening of the Laguerre RSI shows a continuous price rise. The Choppiness Index shows a drop in energy to 38, which means the price may begin to fall. I think the Choppiness Index will begin to consolidate for prices to continue to rise. I also suspect that the price will hit $32k before seeing a retracement. The reason for this is that we have a weak high at this level.  BTC Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview On the weekly, the signs are more encouraging. The Laguerre RSI shows an upward momentum and is not in the overbought region. There is also strength in the Choppiness Index - meaning there is plenty of market energy. Judging by the volume profile, we expect BTC to hit $35k. Some analysts are now warning of the price action in the S&P 500. They posit two things. One, the S&P 500 is now below its 21-weekly moving average. Two, the S&P 500 price is also below the trend line. They believe that we must be concerned with this development. It means that these two signs indicate a fall in the overall market and the price of BTC. It will be interesting to see what happens as time goes on.  S&P 500 Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview As analysts, we can only posit based on experience, but no one can tell you what will happen. When we forecast, we hope it is in the right direction. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine.
There has been a lot of excitement about the BTC price movement. We have had the punditry come out with all sorts of predictions. It is no surprise to anyone; it is what we should expect. Is there room for excitement? Perhaps! Let us look at the evidence. Let's start with the charts. First, the BTC daily chart reveals that the point of control (PoC) acts as resistance. In addition, we are at an equilibrium point. Equilibrium is the state of the market where demand and supply are in balance with the price, indicating that the market price is at fair value. For the price of BTC to rise, it needs to break through not just the PoC but the equilibrium.  BTC Price Chart | Source: Tradingview.com Above both the equilibrium and the PoC, we have a large area of institutional selling (maroon in colour). We may see this area act as resistance. Institutional selling is $29140, a 3.91% move to the upside from the PoC. BTC has moved higher in the past; nevertheless, equilibrium needs consideration. Third and finally, the Laguerre RSI value. Currently, the Laguerre RSI has a reading of 100. The Laguerre RSI may remain at this value for a while but eventually fall. A value of 100 means BTC is overbought at current levels. For the excitement to be palpable, we will need BTC to hit the $30500 level, a move of over 8%. When BTC breaks that price, I believe we will have a great bull run. So, when will this happen? I know not. If you do, then your guess is as good as mine. To be part of this competition, please see here for details: https://nosax.me/crunchDao
Many of you following me will know I have never analysed Solana at any level. Solana is a proof-of-stake Layer 1 Blockchain that offers users fast speeds and affordable costs. There are a variety of projects built on Solana, such as the support for smart contracts, DeFi, social media platforms, and NFT marketplaces. One can say that there are good times ahead in this project. That said, we are not here to talk about the virtues of Solana but the charts. The overall cryptocurrency is in a downtrend, and we should expect a further fall. Solana is not immune to the vagaries of the market. We must be cautious in our assessment of where the market may go. The Solana chart shows the confluence between the price, the Fibonacci retracement of 78.6%, and the institutional buying zone. The volume profile shows that if the price rises, we may have a return of $22. However, if it falls, we are looking at $17 as a possibility. Although highly unlikely, the price may drop between $15.50 and $16.00.  Solana Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview In addition, nothing in the news cycle suggests Solana is in any form of trouble. Nevertheless, the vagaries of the market do reign supreme. One might even say there is "much ado about everything". In other words, no news is good news. As always, when determining the vagaries of the markets, your guess is as good as mine.
I stated two days ago that the SEC is not likely to capitulate that easily when it comes to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Well, it looks like this has come true. There are reports that the SEC will delay the issuance of ETFs. One wonders what game the SEC is playing. Things are almost reminiscent of a banana republic. It is obvious to most that the initial euphoria of the SEC losing its case has come full circle. The price of BTC has continued to fall.  Bitcoin Price Movement, Courtesy Tradingview For those steeped in technical analysis (TA), the charts indicated that there would be a fall in price. Nonetheless, sentiment does come into play when it involves the stock market. And that sentiment can crater any instrument. The chart shows that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement has confluence with the institutional buying area. It also seems that this could be a new point of control (PoC) sometime in the future. The institutional buying area is going to be an area of support. Evidence of this is the congregation of prices around this area. We must remember that sentiment can easily knock the price downwards. BTC Price is $25782 (at the time of writing) and might drop to $24700. How and when sentiment may bring this about is unknown, which can only mean your guess is as good as mine.
 Charles Hoskinson, image courtesy of Cryptonews.com In the last couple of days, there has been excitement concerning ADA. While this is good news, I am sure the hodlers are not impressed by all the noise. Lovers of technical analysis (TA) will tell you the charts are not impressive in the slightest. Before continuing, I must disclose that I hold ADA. Those who have read my content know I never even talk about ADA. Someone close to me asked to take a quick look, hence this blog. Let us start with the monthly chart; the trend has been downhill since September 2021 to today. And there is no end in sight. Charles Hoskinson (Cardano Head-Honcho) can sing, talk, and dance all he likes, but nothing is happening. Many are getting restless. The price dropped a whopping 91.93%! A story of devastation for hodlers and the hopefuls.  ADA Monthly Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview Now we move to the weekly. Here, we see matters more clearly. We see a series of Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) on the chart. BOS is when the price breaks a previous higher high in an uptrend or a lower low in a downtrend. A CHoCH is when the price breaks a prior higher low in an uptrend or a lower high in a downtrend. As I write, there is a CHoCH on the chart, which means a fall. It does not look pretty.  ADA Weekly Chart, Courtesy Tradingview Finally, we have the daily chart. You may have noticed that I did not touch on the Choppiness Index or the Laguerre RSI. I did not forget; this was deliberate. The daily chart shows nothing new. Nevertheless, ADAs' price action is below the Point of Control (PoC). PoC refers to the most popular price level where the highest volume of trades occurred within a specified time frame. The position of the PoC in relation to the current price can provide insights into market sentiment. If the PoC is above the current price, it may indicate bearish sentiment, while if it is below the current price, it may signal bullish sentiment. Currently, the ADA price level is below the PoC.  ADA Daily Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview However, looking at the Choppiness Index, we can see plenty of energy at just over 60. Please remember that the Choppiness Index does not show overbought or oversold areas but energy in the market. In other words, the market can go up or down based on the amount of energy present. ADA does not appear to have anywhere to go but down. In order to add more context to the discussion, I have added the Fibonacci retracement to the chart. There is some confluence between the 78.6% level and institutional selling. This area is likely to act as resistance to the price action. ADAs' price level fell to $0.23 on June 10th, breaking through the institutional buying area. Institutional buying is likely to act as support to the price. We will see more activity by the institutions and observant retail traders. If you are a hodler or believer in the Cardano project, expect to continue this bumpy ride. As for a better ADA price, your guess is as good as mine.
 Image courtesy of Alex Knight As some of you know, we have had a Flipboard magazine that deals with Blockchain, Cryptocurrencies, and of course of Fintech for quite some time. We are known for publishing the short blog post - Crypto stories you may have missed. We have taken a leaf from our book and done the same with artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics. From this moment on, we will be putting out a similar blog post for AI, ML, and robotics. We intend to have this continue into the near future. The reason we are doing this is because of the large following we are receiving on the Flipboard platform. We hope to continue this trend by having a permanent link available to those who do not use the Flipboard platform. We also hope you will become a follower of our magazines on Flipboard and look forward to interacting with you. Here are just a few of the stories you may have missed:
 A quick look at the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures and what direction it might head. This video is strictly for educational purposes. It is not a video giving any financial advice as the maker of this video is not authorized to do so. This video is not an endorsement of S&P 500 E-Mini Futures for purchase. |
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