Category: Solana

SOL: Calm Before Another Storm?

15/11/2023

I am a big fan of Solana. As an asset, it has been very good to me both speculatively and long-term. As you all know, I am a big fan of NFTs. All NFTs of mine sold were through Solana. You may now understand my love for this asset. I confess recent price moves were more than welcome. Nevertheless, the cost of minting an NFT has risen - something unwelcome! Those using ETH certainly understand this sentiment!

Solana has been a tear in recent weeks and went on to surpass USDC. It is now the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. Over the last thirty days, we have seen a price rise of 162.1%. In addition, we have seen a 36% price rise over seven days. Two days ago, the price dropped to $51.54 but has since recovered to $59.15 at the time of writing. So, are we to expect another storm? Let us look at the charts.

The daily chart shows a strong trend to the upside. There is also a price equilibrium between $39 and $42. This price range may act as support if there is any sudden fall in price. The volume profile indicates that with good momentum, there is nothing to stop the price from rising above the $63 range. One can easily question this as market energy is low at 25. I suppose we will have to wait and see what price action does.

Solana Daily Price Chart | Source: Tradingview

The weekly chart paints a similar picture, but being the higher timeframe with even lower energy at 22 causes some concern. We may yet see the price fall, but as mentioned, the $39 - $42 range may act as support.

Solana Weekly Price Chart | Source: Tradingview

We all know that even when the charts say one thing, people's emotions can create an unrealistic asset price. Solana is in danger of just that. The question remains - is there another storm on the way? Maybe. No one knows. Conditions for another run upwards are present. As for if and when it will happen, your guess is as good as mine.

0 Comments

Altcoins: When Will They Be Back?

13/9/2023

0 Comments

You constantly hear of a new altcoin season, but all that happens is lower price levels. The most influential element in this equation is Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of the market capitalization of bitcoin to the rest of the crypto market.

Bitcoin dominance = Bitcoin market cap/ Total cryptocurrency market cap

Just in case you don't understand, the calculation for Bitcoin market cap is as follows:
Bitcoin market cap = Bitcoin price X Bitcoin circulating supply

Investors and traders of cryptocurrencies use bitcoin dominance to adjust their trading/investment strategies. The other characteristics of a higher Bitcoin dominance are the following:

A drop in the overall crypto market capitalization in a bear market
Less price erosion going on with Bitcoin in a bear market
An increased number of Bitcoins added to the supply pool from mining activity
A surge in the Bitcoin price due to optimism in the overall crypto market in a bull market

Bitcoin Dominance, Courtesy Tradingview

There are other things we could discuss, but these are beyond the scope of this blog. What I will say is that there is a simple strategy anyone can follow with these two moves. First, know when we are in a bull or bear market, and follow the BTC dominance as it happens. If BTC dominance increases, we will likely be in a bear market. If BTC dominance decreases, then we are in a bull market. Second, pair your favourite altcoin with Bitcoin. When the price falls against BTC, it means staying out of the investment. Otherwise, do the opposite. Let us now look at a few examples.

We will start with Cardano; remember, we will pair ADA with BTC. To capture as much information as possible, the timeframe applied is weekly. ADA's price trajectory since August of 2021 has been downward. It means the price of ADA is falling relatively to that of BTC. Hence, it would be advisable not to put resources into this cryptocurrency.

ADA/BTC Price Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview

Next is Polkadot (DOT). As you can see, this is very similar to the ADA chart. Again, the price of DOT is falling relative to that of BTC. Hence, one should not invest in this cryptocurrency.

DOT/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview

Now we look at Solana (SOL). Here we have something different. While we have a downward trajectory in price, it is not as steep. It requires us to watch this pair closely. We also see that as long as the price does not fall below the white line, the SOL/BTC pair remains promising.

SOL/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview

The MATIC/BTC chart is also similar to the SOL chart. We can see that the price action with this pair is sideways. We also see that the white line gives us a target area to observe. Breaking through the target area means we hold our current position and make no commitment to obtain any MATIC.

MATIC/BTC Weekly Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview

This analysis is highly simplified, but observations like these will help you make quick decisions. Of course, this is not financial advice, but this should help. Your due diligence and research are mandatory before committing any money. What remains is when Bitcoin's dominance will change, and of course, altcoins will become exciting once more. As for that, your guess is as good as mine.

0 Comments

SOL: Vagaries Reign Supreme?

6/9/2023

0 Comments

My last post on Solana mentioned briefly that just like any other instrument, Solana is subject to the vagaries of the market. The price of SOL spiked by 3.5% in 24 hours. Once I saw the spike, I knew some news triggered the reaction. While a busy day, I took time to find out what exactly caused the jump. It turns out that Visa had announced it would begin to send USDC to selected merchants via the Solana blockchain. No doubt, this is good news for Solana and its supporters. And yes, exciting times ahead.

Solana Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview

Putting the initial euphoria aside, the price of SOL is down from $20.60 to $19.81 (at the time of writing). On Monday, we discussed the price movement of SOL. The confluence between the 78.6% Fibonacci level, the point of control (POC), the institutional buying zone, and the price remains unchanged. As posited on Monday, the Solana price may still fall to $17. If SOL breaks the $19 level, the chances of falling to $17 are more relevant than ever. We must not be surprised if institutional buying acts as a strong support for the price levels. Solana investors are going to have to be vigilant on this one. Just as the price spiked upward, the same can happen heading downwards.

No one knows what the market will do except if you have a crystal ball. And if you don't have one, your guess is as good as mine.

0 Comments

SOL: Much Ado About Everything?

4/9/2023

0 Comments

Many of you following me will know I have never analysed Solana at any level. Solana is a proof-of-stake Layer 1 Blockchain that offers users fast speeds and affordable costs. There are a variety of projects built on Solana, such as the support for smart contracts, DeFi, social media platforms, and NFT marketplaces. One can say that there are good times ahead in this project. That said, we are not here to talk about the virtues of Solana but the charts.

The overall cryptocurrency is in a downtrend, and we should expect a further fall. Solana is not immune to the vagaries of the market. We must be cautious in our assessment of where the market may go. The Solana chart shows the confluence between the price, the Fibonacci retracement of 78.6%, and the institutional buying zone. The volume profile shows that if the price rises, we may have a return of $22. However, if it falls, we are looking at $17 as a possibility. Although highly unlikely, the price may drop between $15.50 and $16.00.

Solana Chart, Courtesy of Tradingview

In addition, nothing in the news cycle suggests Solana is in any form of trouble. Nevertheless, the vagaries of the market do reign supreme. One might even say there is "much ado about everything". In other words, no news is good news. As always, when determining the vagaries of the markets, your guess is as good as mine.

0 Comments

Bitcoin: What The Crypto is Going On?

10/9/2021

1 Comment

A few days ago, the price of Bitcoin suddenly dropped. Why has this happened? We don't know. You will hear all sorts of reasons from people trying to sound intelligent and in the know. Don't be deceived. Those involved in derivatives, on the other hand, have felt the price drop. Those who have taken a long position(believe that the price will rise) in BTC have found themselves on the losing end. This audio blog is, to some extent, a rant. Enjoy!

1 Comment

blogging

SOL: Calm Before Another Storm?

Altcoins: When Will They Be Back?

SOL: Vagaries Reign Supreme?

SOL: Much Ado About Everything?

Bitcoin: What The Crypto is Going On?

Nosa Capital

Archives

Categories