Yesterday I put out a piece talking about the price of Bitcoin. I mentioned the next possible price drops that may occur. The first was $4571, and the second $3454. It was to my astonishment that the first of the two drops had been attained. I never expected it to be that quick. With the current RSI in oversold levels, contrarians are looking to pick up some BTC at what is considered to be cheap. RSI, as I write, is at 12.26 and the price of BTC has somewhat recovered at $4920 having been as low as $4416. I would ask the adventurous among us to be cautious. RSI might be at an oversold level but the price may recover for a little while before dropping even further.
Any further drop and I suspect that the price level - $3435 – will be next. One quick reminder, the BTC price has been below the 21-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for a little while now, which indicates a highly bearish tendency. The lack of certainty in price direction is what makes this market interesting. As always, no one knows what might happen at any particular moment but then again, your guess is as good as mine.
It’s 7 pm CAT (Central African Time) and I am in my office trying to finish off a report for a client when I get a Telegram message from a friend:
“WTF is going on with Bitcoin; why is the price falling?”
The message sort of disturbed my evening of work. I had not looked at the crypto market for a few days as things had remained flat for a while. Now we had this sudden movement with nothing prompting it. I had a quick look at the BTC chart is here is what I saw:
One thing I know about any market is that nothing happens without a reason. Several reasons came to mind without any particular clarity. It was time to seek why this was happening. I first thought that some trader’s bot/s had gone haywire triggering others to do the same. Nevertheless, scanning some of the news sites brought other things to light.
Several governments across the planet have said they will begin to tax holders of Bitcoin, the United States and South Africa come to mind. I was intrigued to read about some crypto hodlers selling out their positions to cover taxes owed. Could this be possible, maybe but not enough to trigger a massive sell off except that seller is a really big whale.
Perhaps the most pertinent reason for the sell off was the upcoming Bitcoin Cash hard fork. A hard fork is essentially the splitting of a cryptocurrency into two or more new currencies. At that time, Bitcoin Cash (BCC) was to be split into Bitcoin ABC (core Bitcoin Cash), and Bitcoin SV (Satoshi’s Vision). Bitcoin Cash had been volatile as a currency precisely because of the potential hard fork, which in turn may have affected the crypto market as a whole. We must not forget the civil war going on in the BCC community. This surely had some impact on the sudden drop in the crypto market.
Some of us may argue that the weakness in the US stock markets might have had some impact no matter how small. Maybe investors were just spooked and decided to sell. This argument can be countered.
I think we can safely ignore the pundits going on about BTC $50k, and question where BTC price will go. For starters, BTC broke a key market structure. This was breaking the $6000 mark. As of this blog, the price is at $5251.7 having fallen even lower earlier today. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also at an oversold level. Oversold levels may mean a bounce back to previous resistance but no one can really tell whether that will happen. If no bounce then it may mean that things are now officially bearish. Another key thing is on the BTC weekly chart. You may notice that the BTC price has broken the 21-day EMA. This may be a signal to indicate a true bearish sentiment.
In a bearish environment what price levels are we talking about? We can give ourselves a rough deduction by using the symmetrical projections methodology. Also known as symmetry or equal drive, this is done by taking an equal measure of previous price highs and projecting them to the lower levels (apologies for not explaining the methodology properly, this will require a separate blog). This gives some idea as to what price may be in the future.
The price estimates we arrived at were $4571 and $3435. Will Bitcoin fall to these levels, maybe. We have all witnessed the volatile nature of Bitcoin with no one really knowing what to expect in the months and years to come, but then again, your guess is as good as mine.
Organizations across the world now realize the importance of digital assets. Some of that importance is down to your social media presence as well as your website. Your website will probably become more significant than it is today. This is because when you use someone else’s platform things can suddenly change. Facebook comes to mind.
Well now, Google+ comes to mind. I know this is old news but Google will be shutting down the Google platform. Their reason - I think is an excuse is - there was a security breach exposing users’ data. The real truth - Google+ has low usage and engagement, and 90% users spend less than 5 seconds. This should come as no surprise to anyone. We all knew that things were not well in Google land.
Truth be told I actually like Google+. I engaged people on this platform something I never did nor do on Facebook. My first few sales came through Google+ when I owned a fashion concern. My websites also got a lot of traction via Google+. I suppose you can understand why I am going to miss this platform.
Having said all that, what’s next? Nosa Capital has had a presence on Steem, Minds, and Flipboard platforms for a little while. Recently, Nosa Capital has established a presence on Instagram. This is progress you might say but that is beside the point. As you all know, the platform owners might throw a tantrum and change the rules; again, Facebook comes to mind. Before the Facebook occurrence was Posterous. Posterous for those who don’t know was a blogging platform, which Twitter bought. Just when I got comfortable, the rug was pulled from under my feet. I do not want a repeat of this occurrence.
Some new alternatives have recently popped up. These include Mastodon, MeWe, and Plusphora to mention a few. I am not one to knock any of these platforms but you will have to forgive my wariness for reasons mentioned earlier.
Ultimately, I want a platform that will not change the rules. This may be hard to come by or perhaps never happen. One bit of hope is the Minds.com platform. Minds have mentioned the use of their free open source code to launch your own social network. This is the direction I would ultimately love to take for all my digital assets in the future. In my opinion, this would be the most ideal solution. Achieving this, however, is another story. I will keep all posted as to whatever progress I make towards this aim.
Swap your cryptos here:
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