Category: A Quick Bitcoin Analysis

BTC: Is There Too Much Excitement?

9/10/2023

There has been a lot of excitement about the BTC price movement. We have had the punditry come out with all sorts of predictions. It is no surprise to anyone; it is what we should expect. Is there room for excitement? Perhaps! Let us look at the evidence.

Let's start with the charts. First, the BTC daily chart reveals that the point of control (PoC) acts as resistance. In addition, we are at an equilibrium point. Equilibrium is the state of the market where demand and supply are in balance with the price, indicating that the market price is at fair value. For the price of BTC to rise, it needs to break through not just the PoC but the equilibrium.

BTC Price Chart | Source: Tradingview.com

Above both the equilibrium and the PoC, we have a large area of institutional selling (maroon in colour). We may see this area act as resistance. Institutional selling is $29140, a 3.91% move to the upside from the PoC. BTC has moved higher in the past; nevertheless, equilibrium needs consideration. Third and finally, the Laguerre RSI value. Currently, the Laguerre RSI has a reading of 100. The Laguerre RSI may remain at this value for a while but eventually fall. A value of 100 means BTC is overbought at current levels.

For the excitement to be palpable, we will need BTC to hit the $30500 level, a move of over 8%. When BTC breaks that price, I believe we will have a great bull run. So, when will this happen? I know not. If you do, then your guess is as good as mine.

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BTC: A Temporary Price Rise or Something Else?

4/10/2023

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One big moment late last week was the announcement by the government of the United States not to shut down government functions. Many believe this brought about a spike in the BTC price. I am not in complete agreement with this opinion. One reason is the sudden spike in price on Sunday, the 1st of October. Nothing was happening over the weekend to warrant such a price spike. Perhaps there was the fear of a short squeeze. Nevertheless, vagaries in the crypto market come as no surprise. Without the obvious answer, let us look at a few possible factors.

Fear & Greed Index | Source: CoinMarketCap

A look at the Fear & Greed Index tells us that there is investor uncertainty. We are currently at a rate of 44, which signifies a neutral sentiment. The volume profile reveals that the point of control (PoC) acts as a point of resistance but turns to support. Laguerre RSI shows that it is in the overbought territory. The choppiness index also indicates it is getting low on energy at just under 43. While there is promise of a price rise, there are points of concern. For instance, the current price is below the Fibonacci 61.8% level. We may see the price falling further.

Bitcoin/USD Chart | Source: Tradingview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also showing strength. When the DXY shows strength, the price of BTC tends to fall. These two instruments show an inverse correlation.

Bitcoin/DXY Chart | Source: Tradingview

Finally, onchain analytics has a few things to say. Let us look at just two indicators. The 200-week moving average heatmap reveals something significant. In each of its market cycles, Bitcoin's price historically bottoms out around the 200-week moving average. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. When the price dots are purple and close to the 200-week MA, these have historically been good times to buy. We see this with the current price of BTC.

Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap | Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Another good indication of BTC buying is the 2-year MA Multiplier. We also see that buying BTC should occur when the price is below the green line and selling when above the red. There can be no question; some are accumulating, while some have made a quick profit.

Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier | Source: LookIntoBitcoin

I suspect that the price action will surprise us. We should be ready before the price takes off. It is all we can do or must do. And when will this happen? All I can say is your guess is as good as mine.

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BTC: Affected By Sentiment?

2/9/2023

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I stated two days ago that the SEC is not likely to capitulate that easily when it comes to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Well, it looks like this has come true. There are reports that the SEC will delay the issuance of ETFs. One wonders what game the SEC is playing. Things are almost reminiscent of a banana republic. It is obvious to most that the initial euphoria of the SEC losing its case has come full circle. The price of BTC has continued to fall.

Bitcoin Price Movement, Courtesy Tradingview

For those steeped in technical analysis (TA), the charts indicated that there would be a fall in price. Nonetheless, sentiment does come into play when it involves the stock market. And that sentiment can crater any instrument.

The chart shows that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement has confluence with the institutional buying area. It also seems that this could be a new point of control (PoC) sometime in the future. The institutional buying area is going to be an area of support. Evidence of this is the congregation of prices around this area. We must remember that sentiment can easily knock the price downwards. BTC Price is $25782 (at the time of writing) and might drop to $24700. How and when sentiment may bring this about is unknown, which can only mean your guess is as good as mine.

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BTC: SEC Effect or Something Else?

31/8/2023

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We all know that there is never a dull moment in crypto. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a secret motion against Binance. No doubt this will have some impact on the BTC price. One can imagine the longs running for cover. Some may say it is better to be out of the market. If so, where is the fun in that?

BTC Price Chart, Courtesy Tradingview

I posited a few days ago that the charts indicate a further fall; I have not changed my mind. At the time of writing, the current BTC price is $27236, down from $28184 by over $1100. In addition, the Fibonacci retracement also shows that the price has fallen through the 61.8% level, which means a further fall is likely. There is also a close confluence with the $27431 level on the volume profile with the 61.8% Fibonacci levels. When we add the Choppiness Index effect, there is still enough energy to facilitate a further fall, but these things don't happen overnight.

It should come as no surprise that the price may fall all the way down to the area of institutional buying (the blue rectangle marked on the chart). We now wait and see what happens; time is the custodian of events. Educated guesses are all we have to discuss, nothing more. An exception might be if you have a crystal ball to tell the future. If not, your guess is as good as mine.

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A Quick Bitcoin Analysis

1/7/2021

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This analysis was done yesterday. This video is strictly for educational purposes. It is not a video giving any financial advice as the maker of this video is not authorized to do so. This video is not an endorsement of Bitcoin for purchase.

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BTC: Is There Too Much Excitement?

BTC: A Temporary Price Rise or Something Else?

BTC: Affected By Sentiment?

BTC: SEC Effect or Something Else?

A Quick Bitcoin Analysis

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